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Housing & Real Estate · October 21, 2026 · 2 min read

September housing starts fall 5.2% to a 1.221 million annual rate as single-family permits drop 4.0%

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 21, 2026 • Updated October 21, 2026

Reviewed by Instinct source QC

Privately owned U.S. housing starts fell 5.2% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000, the Census Bureau and HUD reported, while single-family building permits fell 4.0% to 845,000. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.40% in the latest Freddie Mac survey.

Privately owned housing starts in September 2026 ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000, 5.2 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,288,000 and 7.4 percent below the September 2025 rate of 1,319,000, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported in their joint New Residential Construction release. The month-over-month change carries a margin of error of plus or minus 11.5 percentage points, so the monthly drop is not statistically distinguishable from zero; the year-over-year figure also carries a wide error band. Single-family starts came in at a rate of 859,000, 4.6 percent below the revised August figure. Starts in buildings with five units or more ran at 336,000. On the forward-looking side, building permits told a milder story. Total permits ran at a 1,400,000 annual rate, just 0.2 percent below the revised August rate of 1,403,000 and 3.0 percent below September 2025. Single-family authorizations, the component analysts watch most closely, fell 4.0 percent to 845,000 from a revised 880,000. Authorizations in buildings with five units or more ran at 503,000. Completions moved the other way from a year ago: privately owned housing completions ran at a 1,192,000 annual rate, up 2.2 percent from the revised August estimate but 14.0 percent below the September 2025 rate of 1,386,000. Single-family completions ran at 840,000, 2.4 percent below the revised August figure. The pipeline of finished new supply is shrinking rather than growing. Financing costs remain the drag. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at an average of 7.40 percent in its latest weekly reading, up from 6.27 percent a year ago, with the 15-year fixed at 6.71 percent. The September report is subject to revision in next month's release, and the Census Bureau cautions that month-to-month movements in this series carry wide margins of error. The clearer signal is the single-family permits line, which points to fewer projects entering the pipeline into winter.

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