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Markets · October 24, 2026 · 2 min read

Michigan final October sentiment is 48.0; inflation expectations rise

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 24, 2026 • Updated October 24, 2026

Reviewed by Instinct source QC

Final October sentiment was nearly unchanged from September at 48.0. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and long-run expectations to 3.5%; these are consumer expectations, not realized inflation.

The University of Michigan's final October Consumer Sentiment Index was 48.0, compared with 48.1 in September and 53.6 in October 2025. The university's October 23 release describes sentiment as holding steady. This is the final monthly result, distinct from the preliminary October reading previously reported on this site. The Current Economic Conditions Index fell to 46.7 from 50.9 in September, while the Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 48.8 from 46.3. The two components moved in opposite directions, leaving the headline index nearly unchanged. Neither component is a direct measure of national output or household spending. Year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 4.7% from 4.6% in September. Long-run expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. The survey says both measures increased for a second consecutive month to their highest readings since May. These figures describe respondents' expectations, not the inflation rate measured by the Consumer Price Index. The university reports that buying conditions for durable goods fell 18%, with respondents citing higher interest rates and affordability concerns. It also says 85% considered it a bad time to buy a house, while 62% cited high interest rates, up from 47% a month earlier. These are survey responses, not a recommendation about any particular home purchase. The share spontaneously mentioning high prices as a drag on personal finances rose to 56%, compared with 45% in January. The university says purchasing power remains a central concern and that experiences differ by financial wealth. This does not establish that every household experienced the same change in living standards. The survey uses a nationally representative rotating panel, with web interviews throughout the month. The university gives 4.8 index points as the minimum monthly sentiment change needed for significance at the 95% level. The observed 0.1-point decline is well below that threshold. The report therefore does not support describing October as a statistically significant monthly collapse or using it to predict a Federal Reserve decision.

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