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Markets · October 20, 2026 · 2 min read

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index falls to 20.9 in October; new orders slide 25 points to 4.3

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 20, 2026 • Updated October 20, 2026

Reviewed by originalRead

The Philadelphia Fed's October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows the general activity index falling from 37.8 to 20.9, a second consecutive monthly decline, with new orders down 25 points to 4.3 and shipments down 12 points to 15.3.

Manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District continued to expand in October but at a slower pace, according to the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey released October 15, 2026. The diffusion index for current general activity fell for the second consecutive month, dropping from 37.8 in September to 20.9 in October. More than 41 percent of responding firms reported increases in activity, down from 45 percent in September, while 20 percent reported decreases, up from 8 percent. The share reporting no change fell to 27 percent from 45 percent. The new orders index fell 25 points to 4.3, with almost 39 percent of firms reporting increases and 34 percent reporting decreases. The current shipments index moved down 12 points to 15.3. The employment index edged down 3 points to 9.1 but continued to indicate an overall increase in employment, while the average workweek index declined 11 points to 7.5. On prices, the prices paid index moved down 5 points to 43.2 while the prices received index rose 9 points to 40.1, both still indicating overall price increases. Firms continued to expect overall growth over the next six months, but most future indicators declined. The diffusion index for future general activity fell 20 points to 33.0, future new orders fell 25 points to 37.0, future shipments fell 26 points to 35.2, and the future employment index fell 21 points to 30.1. Future prices paid fell 8 points to 62.9 and future prices received fell 10 points to 62.1, both well above their long-run averages.

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