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Bonds & Rates · October 21, 2026 · 1 min read

Treasury yields edge lower: 10-year at 5.15% and 2-year at 4.77% in the Fed's October 19 H.15 reading

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 21, 2026 • Updated October 21, 2026

Reviewed by Instinct source QC

The Federal Reserve's H.15 daily update put the 10-year Treasury at 5.15% and the 2-year at 4.77% on October 19, leaving the 2s10s spread at +38 basis points, with the effective federal funds rate at 3.88% and the bank prime rate at 7.00%.

The Federal Reserve's H.15 statistical release for October 19, 2026 put the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield at 5.15 percent, down from 5.21 percent on October 13, and the 2-year at 4.77 percent, down from 4.79 percent. The 30-year ended the period at 5.48 percent, off from 5.56 percent. That leaves the 2s10s spread at +38 basis points, a positive slope that has held through October after last year's inversion. The 3-month Treasury bill secondary-market rate was 4.27 percent, keeping the 3m10y spread at -88 basis points, the recession-watched pairing that remains inverted. Real yields moved in the same direction: the 10-year TIPS yield was 2.80 percent and the 30-year TIPS 3.21 percent. Subtracting reals from nominals puts 10-year breakeven inflation near 2.35 percent. Policy-rate anchors were unchanged: the effective federal funds rate printed 3.88 percent, the discount window primary credit rate 4.00 percent, and the bank prime loan rate 7.00 percent. The H.15 is a daily series subject to revision; single-day moves of a few basis points are noise. The useful read is the level: long rates above 5 percent keep mortgage and corporate borrowing costs elevated, which is the channel through which this curve hits the real economy.

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