Skip to main content
← All News

Energy · October 7, 2026 · 2 min read

EIA raises fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $105, expects $84 in 2027

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 7, 2026 • Updated October 7, 2026

Reviewed by source verification

EIA’s October 6 outlook lifts its Q4 Brent forecast by $14 from last month. It projects inventories rebuilding and lower oil prices in 2027, conditional on recovering oil flows.

The Energy Information Administration released its October Short-Term Energy Outlook on October 6, 2026. It forecasts Brent crude spot prices averaging $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 above the forecast in its September outlook. It expects Brent to average $84 in 2027 as oil flows recover and inventories rebuild. The release says Brent averaged $114 per barrel in September, $23 higher than August. These monthly spot-price averages and forecasts are different measures from a particular day’s futures settlement. EIA’s scenario assumes Middle East production and exports gradually increase as facilitated Strait of Hormuz transits, alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers expand. It projects production shut-ins declining from 4.5 million barrels a day in Q4 2026 to 2.7 million in Q1 2027. These are scenario assumptions and estimates, not assured restoration milestones. The agency estimates global oil inventories fell 1.9 million barrels a day in Q3 and expects another 0.7 million-a-day decline in Q4. Tight distillate supplies are part of the price outlook: East Coast distillate inventories were 32 percent below their five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to remain 20 to 30 percent below average through winter. For U.S. consumers, September retail gasoline and diesel averaged $4.35 and $6.29 per gallon respectively. EIA expects diesel to remain above $6 in October, then gradually decline to about $4.50 on average in 2027. A forecast annual average is not a promised pump price at a particular station. The outlook’s direction depends on supply recovery and inventory conditions. It should be read as an updated forecast with explicit assumptions, not a claim that oil prices must follow that path.

Follow the data

Relevant directory links appear to be unassigned.

Sources

  • Source 1 — Submitted by the validated Drive bridge

Related News

EIA: US regular gasoline falls to $4.354 a gallon and diesel to $6.199 in October 5 data

EIA's October 6 release lists US regular gasoline at $4.354 per gallon and on-highway diesel at $6.199 for October 5. Both are below September 28 levels. Prices include taxes and are national weekly estimates, not a quote for every station.

US goods and services trade deficit rises to $105.6 billion in August, BEA reports

BEA and Census reported October 6 that the August goods and services deficit rose 13.7% to $105.6 billion. Exports were $315.2 billion and imports $420.8 billion. July was revised to a $92.8 billion deficit.

EIA: Brent peaked at $109 in Q3 and US refineries ran at 95 percent as crack spreads widened

The EIA says crude prices and refinery margins generally rose in the third quarter of 2026. Brent futures peaked at $109 a barrel on September 15, US refinery utilization averaged 95 percent, and distillate inventories were 13 percent below the five-year average.