← All NewsThe Federal Reserve’s November 3, 2026 H.15 release lists the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield at 4.91% for November 2. The observation date is November 2, not November 3. The release is a statistical update, not a Federal Reserve policy announcement.
The same November 2 column puts the two-year rate at 4.59%, the five-year at 4.70%, the seven-year at 4.79% and the 30-year at 5.28%. Subtracting the two-year rate from the 10-year rate gives a positive 0.32 percentage point spread, or 32 basis points. That is an arithmetic comparison, not a forecast.
The 10-year rate declined from 4.94% on October 30 to 4.91% on November 2. The two-year rate rose from 4.56% to 4.59% over those observations. The two-to-ten-year spread therefore narrowed from 38 to 32 basis points; the table does not show a steepening over that interval.
The effective federal funds rate is listed at 3.88%. Nominal constant-maturity rates are 4.05% at one month and 4.25% at six months. Those are not the same series as the separately listed secondary-market Treasury bill rates, which are 3.90% for four weeks and 4.14% for six months.
For inflation-indexed constant maturities, the November 2 observations are 2.62% for ten years and 3.06% for thirty years. The Fed explains that constant-maturity values are interpolated from daily yield curves. A constant-maturity observation need not be the yield of an outstanding security with exactly that remaining term.
These yields do not, by themselves, establish a neutral policy rate, a change in the term premium, the reason investors traded or the next policy decision. H.15 is posted on business days at 4:15 p.m. according to the release page, but the date atop the release must still be distinguished from each data column’s observation date.
Interest Rates · November 3, 2026 · 2 min read
November 3 H.15 release puts November 2 ten-year Treasury yield at 4.91%
By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team
Published November 3, 2026 • Updated November 3, 2026
The release reports the prior business day’s observations. The two-to-ten-year spread narrowed to 32 basis points, while the data do not establish a policy outlook.
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