← All NewsThe U.S. Treasury said on November 2, 2026 that it expects to borrow $618 billion in privately-held net marketable debt during October-December 2026. The estimate assumes an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion.
The fourth-quarter estimate is $10 billion lower than Treasury projected in August. Treasury attributes the reduction primarily to a higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. Excluding the higher opening cash balance, the estimate would be $24 billion higher than the August projection.
For January-March 2027, Treasury projects $800 billion in privately-held net marketable borrowing, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion. These are financing estimates tied to stated cash-balance assumptions, not announced auction sizes for individual securities.
Treasury says additional financing details for its Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. The November 2 borrowing statement does not itself establish how the estimates will affect bond yields or what the Federal Reserve will decide.
The measure excludes rollovers of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account, but includes financing required because of redemptions from that account. It is a net borrowing measure, rather than the gross volume of all Treasury auctions.
Markets · November 3, 2026 · 1 min read
Treasury estimates $618 billion in fourth-quarter net marketable borrowing
By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team
Published November 3, 2026 • Updated November 3, 2026
The November 2 estimate assumes an $850 billion year-end cash balance. Treasury projects $800 billion for January-March 2027.
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