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Inflation · October 7, 2026 · 2 min read

New York Fed: one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.9 percent in September

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 7, 2026 • Updated October 7, 2026

Reviewed by source verification

The October 7 survey release puts one-year inflation expectations at their highest since May 2023. Labor-market expectations mostly improved, but household financial outlooks worsened.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its September 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations on October 7. Median one-year inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 3.9 percent, their highest reading since May 2023. Three-year expectations increased 0.1 percentage point to 3.3 percent. Five-year expectations stayed at 3.0 percent. These are household expectations, not measured inflation or a Federal Reserve forecast that prices will follow this path. Labor-market expectations mostly improved. The mean perceived probability of losing a job in the next 12 months fell 0.3 percentage point to 13.5 percent. The perceived probability of finding a job if the respondent lost their current job rose 0.7 percentage point to 46.1 percent. Expectations about unemployment also improved, even though median expected earnings growth fell 0.3 percentage point to 2.6 percent. Expected household income growth increased 0.1 percentage point to 3.1 percent, while expected spending growth rose 0.3 percentage point to 5.5 percent. At the same time, perceptions and expectations of household financial conditions deteriorated. Rising expected income is therefore not a standalone signal that households feel financially stronger. The survey ran from September 1 through 30. It uses a nationally representative rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads, who can participate for up to 12 months. Its percentage changes should not be confused with an observed change in all workers' wages or spending. The useful reading is a mixed one: higher near-term inflation expectations, somewhat better perceived labor prospects, and weaker household financial sentiment. None of those survey findings alone determines the next interest-rate decision.

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