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Rates & Fed · October 8, 2026 · 2 min read

Waller: further Fed rate increases depend on incoming data

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 8, 2026 • Updated October 8, 2026

Reviewed by primary-source verification

The governor says inflation remains too high and discusses the SEP as a signal, not a fixed policy promise. His 75-basis-point example is hypothetical.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in an October 8, 2026 speech that he anticipates additional rate increases if economic data continue to develop as expected. He said the increases need not occur at consecutive meetings and stressed flexibility over timing. Speaking at the Istanbul Economic Forum, Waller described the labor market as stable and inflation as too high. He said near-term policy would focus on the inflation side of the Fed's mandate. These are his views, not a new FOMC decision. Waller explained his support for September's 25-basis-point increase to a 3.75 percent to 4 percent federal funds target range. He attributed his decision to evidence developing over several months, rather than just one August inflation reading. He said the Summary of Economic Projections can signal policymakers' expected direction without fixing the exact pace or size of future moves. In the September projections, 16 of 18 participants anticipated at least one more increase during the two remaining meetings in 2026, according to his speech. Four of those 16 expected two increases. The speech uses three 25-basis-point increases, totaling 75 basis points, as a hypothetical illustration of communication choices. That example is not an announcement that the Fed has committed to three increases or to a six-month schedule. Waller said the course of monetary policy is not predetermined and depends on incoming data and its implications for price stability and maximum employment. The speech's disclaimer says his views do not necessarily represent his colleagues on the Board or the FOMC.

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