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GDP & Growth · November 12, 2026 · 2 min read

UK Q3 GDP grows 0.7%; ONS cautions against quantifying the AI contribution

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published November 12, 2026 • Updated November 12, 2026

Services led the first estimate, but monthly programming output fell in September. Production grew rather than contracted, and the data do not measure a precise AI share of growth.

The UK economy grew by an estimated 0.7% in the third quarter of 2026, following 0.5% growth in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics reported on November 12. The seasonally adjusted real GDP estimate was 1.9% above the same quarter a year earlier. These are early estimates of output, not a final reading of the quarter. Services grew by 0.9% across July to September, with increases in 11 of 14 services subsectors. Administrative and support services, information and communication, and professional, scientific and technical activities made the largest positive contributions. Production grew by 0.1%, while construction declined by 0.7%. Computer programming, consultancy and related activities grew by 4.4% over the quarter. ONS found evidence that many businesses with the largest turnover increases were involved in AI and cloud computing, but said its data could not quantify their exact impact. The figures therefore do not measure how much of national GDP growth was caused by AI. The monthly picture was different from the quarterly trend. GDP grew by 0.2% in September after no growth in August, revised down from 0.1%, and an unrevised 0.4% rise in July. Computer programming and related activities fell by 1.9% in September after six monthly increases, even though they were a major contributor to three-month growth. Manufacturing grew by 0.9% over the quarter and by 0.7% in September. Construction fell across the quarter, with new work down 1.6% and private housing new work down 4.7%, but monthly construction output rose by 0.8% in September. Mixing those time frames would turn a quarterly contraction into a misleading claim about the latest month. Real GDP per head rose by an estimated 0.7% over the quarter and 1.7% over the year. ONS warns that early estimates can be revised as more information arrives; the quarterly release left earlier quarterly GDP unchanged, while the monthly release revised July and August components. These GDP bulletins do not establish a future Bank of England decision or the cause of a particular move in sterling or equities.

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