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Business & Economy · October 13, 2026 · 2 min read

NFIB September optimism slips to 97.9; membership survey points to hiring and cost concerns

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 13, 2026 • Updated October 13, 2026

Reviewed by Instinct editorial QC

The October 13 report puts optimism just below its long-run average. Its 411 usable responses come from NFIB members, not a census of all U.S. businesses.

NFIB released its September 2026 Small Business Economic Trends results on October 13. The Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points to 97.9, one-tenth of a point below its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose one point to 90, compared with a historical average of 68. These are survey measures of business owners, not a direct estimate of national output. The report says the survey drew a sample of 5,000 small-business owners from NFIB membership and received 411 usable responses, an 8.2% response rate. The survey was conducted in September. Membership sampling and nonresponse limit how broadly the findings can be applied to all U.S. small businesses or the economy as a whole. Labor quality or availability was the single most important problem for 26% of respondents, up three percentage points from August. Inflation was the top problem for 20%, up four points. These shares measure owners selecting a concern; they are not inflation rates, wage growth or the percentage of every employer unable to hire. A seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill, down three points from August. Among the 51% hiring or trying to hire, 87% reported few or no qualified applicants. That 87% has a narrower denominator than all respondents and should not be described as a share of every small business. A seasonally adjusted net 6% expected better business conditions over the next six months, down four points. Only 7% said it was a good time to expand, down five points. A net balance of expectations differs from a simple share expressing optimism, and these intentions do not establish subsequent investment or hiring. The survey reports an average short-maturity loan interest rate of 8.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from August. That is an owner-reported borrowing measure, not the federal funds target or a quote available to every borrower. The September survey provides timely context for costs and hiring, but does not independently prove a recession, a policy decision or future business performance.

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