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GDP & Growth · October 12, 2026 · 2 min read

New York Fed regional presentation pairs improving activity with household stress

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 12, 2026 • Updated October 12, 2026

Reviewed by Instinct editorial QC

The October 8 presentation says regional activity has picked up, with job growth concentrated around New York City. Its survey and credit indicators describe different populations and periods.

An October 8 presentation by New York Fed researcher Joelle Scally describes an uneven regional economy. Its overview says activity has picked up, led by manufacturing, while regional job growth is mostly concentrated in and around New York City. It also identifies signs of rising household stress. The activity chart uses the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Business Leaders Survey for the service sector. The presentation expresses current-condition diffusion indexes as three-month moving averages. These are survey measures, not a count of jobs or a direct estimate of regional GDP. The employment comparison uses regional data early benchmarked by the New York Fed and expressed as a three-month average through August. Its concentration of growth around New York City does not mean every nearby area or every industry is expanding. The presentation also says artificial-intelligence adoption has continued to increase in the region. A separate chart describes retraining as common and layoffs attributed to AI as limited. Adoption and staffing responses are distinct measures; the slides do not prove that AI caused the wider regional activity change. For household credit, the slides describe rising mortgage delinquencies and auto and credit-card delinquencies that are elevated but not worsening. These indicators come from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel and Equifax. Credit stress is not interchangeable with the business-survey outlook. Limits: the slides are a dated research presentation to the Community Depository Institutions Advisory meeting. They state that the views are the presenter's and do not necessarily represent the New York Fed or Federal Reserve System. This is not a monetary-policy decision or a forecast that applies uniformly to all households.

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