Skip to main content
← All News

Inflation · November 9, 2026 · 2 min read

New York Fed: October inflation expectations steady as debt-payment concerns rise

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published November 9, 2026 • Updated November 9, 2026

One-, three- and five-year inflation expectations held at 3.9%, 3.3% and 3.0%. Perceived debt-payment risk increased, but labor and household-finance expectations were mixed rather than uniformly weaker.

The New York Federal Reserve reported on November 9, 2026 that median inflation expectations were unchanged in October at 3.9% one year ahead, 3.3% three years ahead and 3.0% five years ahead. Its Survey of Consumer Expectations was fielded from October 1 through October 31. These are household expectations about future prices, not an observation of current inflation or a Federal Reserve forecast. Expected price changes differed by category. The median year-ahead expectation for gasoline fell 0.6 percentage point to 4.2%, while food was unchanged at 5.5%. Expectations rose to 9.3% for medical care, 7.6% for college education and 7.7% for rent. Median uncertainty about inflation decreased at the one- and three-year horizons and was unchanged at five years. Uncertainty within an individual response is distinct from disagreement across respondents. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, the highest reading since December 2025. That is a reported expectation, not the percentage of borrowers who have actually missed a payment. Median expected household income growth declined 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, while expected spending growth declined 0.2 percentage point to 5.3%. The survey does not establish that the gap between those two growth expectations caused the change in delinquency expectations. Labor-market expectations were mixed. The mean probability assigned to a higher U.S. unemployment rate a year ahead increased 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest reading since April 2020. The mean perceived probability of losing one's own job rose 0.4 percentage point to 13.9%. At the same time, the perceived chance of finding a job after losing the current one rose 0.4 percentage point to 46.5%, its highest level since November 2025. These measures concern different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable unemployment forecasts. Not every household-finance measure weakened. Perceptions of credit access compared with a year earlier and expectations for future credit availability were roughly unchanged. Perceptions of households' current financial situations improved slightly, while expectations for a year ahead were roughly unchanged. The report therefore describes a mixed picture rather than a uniform deterioration across all financial measures. The survey uses a nationally representative internet-based rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads, who participate for up to 12 months. Its design helps researchers follow changes in the same individuals' expectations over time, but reported beliefs are not guaranteed outcomes. Medians, mean probabilities and actual economic data answer different questions. The release does not announce an interest-rate decision or establish how financial markets moved in response.

Sources

Related News

Japan October machine-tool orders rise 42.5% annually but fall from September

JMTBA preliminary data put orders at 204.377 billion yen. Domestic and foreign orders were higher than a year earlier, but both fell month on month; the table does not identify an AI-sector driver.

German October inflation confirmed at 2.8%; energy still drives annual rise

Final Destatis data show slower annual inflation and a monthly price decline. Energy remained 12.2% more expensive than a year earlier, with heating oil moving differently from motor fuels and electricity.

Bessent prepared remarks outline China dialogue on advanced-model risks

Treasury describes a new dialogue and a direct incident channel still being established. Expected testing exchanges are not a published joint protocol, tariff schedule or binding safety standard.