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Consumer Sentiment · October 9, 2026 · 2 min read

Michigan preliminary October sentiment edges down to 46.3

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 9, 2026 • Updated October 9, 2026

Reviewed by Instinct editorial QC

The preliminary survey separates a weaker current-conditions reading from slightly higher expectations. Consumers’ inflation expectations are not measured CPI inflation.

The University of Michigan's preliminary October 2026 survey puts its Index of Consumer Sentiment at 46.3, down from September's 48.1 and October 2025's 53.6. This is an index reading, not a percentage of consumers who feel confident. The October table reports a 3.7 percent decline from September and a 13.6 percent decline from a year earlier. The change from 48.1 to 46.3 is 1.8 index points. Percentage change and index-point change describe the same movement in different units. Current Economic Conditions fell to 44.7 from September's 50.9. Consumer Expectations rose to 47.3 from 46.3. The components therefore moved in different directions; the preliminary release does not show a uniform decline across every measure. Survey director Joanne Hsu said buying conditions for durable goods fell amid high prices and borrowing costs, while year-ahead views of personal finances and business conditions improved slightly. These are survey responses and the director's interpretation, not measured retail sales or a forecast that household spending must fall. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.6 percent to 4.7 percent. Long-run inflation expectations rose from 3.4 percent to 3.5 percent. Both describe consumers' expected inflation, not inflation already recorded by the CPI or the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE price index. The survey labels these results preliminary and lists final October data for October 23 at 10 a.m. Eastern. Later interviews can change the estimates. This release does not establish a Federal Reserve rate decision, a currency forecast or a confirmed recession.

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