GDP & Growth · August 14, 2026 · 2 min read

Census Advance Estimate Put July Retail and Food Services Sales at $763.6 Billion, Down 0.6%

Published August 14, 2026 • Updated August 21, 2026

The Census Bureau’s August 14 advance estimate put seasonally adjusted July retail and food services sales at $763.6 billion, 0.6% below June and 5.0% above July 2025; the release says the estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

CONFIRMED FACTS The U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales release, issued August 14, 2026, estimated July retail and food services sales at $763.6 billion. The release states that the estimate is adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Census reported that July sales were down 0.6% (±0.4%) from June and up 5.0% (±0.5%) from July 2025. Its accompanying Table 1 lists the July seasonally adjusted total at $763.602 billion and the preliminary June total at $768.072 billion; Table 2 lists the corresponding July month-over-month and year-over-year changes as -0.6% and 5.0%. The release also reported that sales for May through July 2026 were 6.3% (±0.5%) above the same three-month period a year earlier. Census said the May-to-June percent change was unrevised at 0.2% (±0.3%). ANALYSIS The advance estimate shows a one-month decline in nominal retail and food services sales after the release’s stated seasonal and calendar adjustments. Because the series is not adjusted for price changes, the reported dollar level and percentage changes alone do not measure changes in the volume of goods and services purchased. Retail and food services sales also cover only part of household consumption measured in the national accounts. UNKNOWNS AND LIMITS This is an advance estimate, and Census labels the June level preliminary and the May level revised in the accompanying table. The release reports sampling variability alongside the percentage changes, so small movements should not be read as precise point estimates. The data do not identify the causes of the July change, establish changes in real consumer spending, or forecast broader economic growth. UPDATE LOG Published August 14, 2026 after direct review of the Census Bureau’s August 14 Advance Monthly Sales release and its accompanying July 2026 tables.

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Sources

U.S. Census Bureau — Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services — Primary-source release issued August 14, 2026; reports the July advance estimate, monthly and year-over-year changes, adjustment basis, and uncertainty measures.
U.S. Census Bureau — July 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report Tables — Primary-source accompanying tables used to verify the July and June seasonally adjusted levels, percentage changes, and estimate status.

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