October 29 Treasury curve spread stays positive at 37 basis points

FRED puts the daily 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread at 0.37 percentage point, one basis point below October 28. The reading describes the curve, not a direct estimate of term premium.

FRED reports the daily spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yields at positive 0.37 percentage point for October 29, 2026. That is 37 basis points, rather than an inverted curve for this pair of maturities. The spread was positive 0.38 percentage point on October 28 and positive 0.29 on October 27. The latest reading therefore narrowed by one basis point from the previous day, after the preceding day's nine-basis-point increase. The series subtracts the 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yield from the 10-year yield. A positive number means the 10-year yield is higher. This measure is different from the spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields. FRED labels the data daily, in percent and not seasonally adjusted. The October 29 observation is a dated statistical reading, not a live quote for every Treasury trade occurring that evening. The difference between two yields does not directly measure the Treasury term premium or isolate its cause. A claim that fiscal issuance, investor demand or a particular policy decision caused the latest change would require additional evidence. The new observation supplies an updated point on the yield curve. It should not be treated as a forecast of recession, the next Federal Reserve decision or a guaranteed return from buying bonds. Daily observations may also be revised by the source.

October 29 Treasury curve spread stays positive at 37 basis points

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