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Rates & Fed · October 28, 2026 · 2 min read

October 28 Treasury spread widens to positive 38 basis points

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 28, 2026 • Updated October 28, 2026

FRED reports the daily 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread at positive 0.38 percentage point for October 28, up nine basis points from October 27. It is not a negative 47-basis-point inversion.

FRED reports the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury constant-maturity spread at positive 0.38 percentage point for October 28, 2026. The series is daily and not seasonally adjusted. Its page lists an update at 4:03 p.m. Central Time on October 28. The preceding October 27 observation is positive 0.29 percentage point. The new observation is nine basis points higher, reaching 38 basis points. The comparison is between two dated daily observations, not a description of every intraday move. The subtraction order matters: this series takes the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield. A positive reading means the 10-year yield is higher in this measure. It should not be labeled a negative 47-basis-point inversion. FRED lists positive 0.32 percentage point for October 26 and positive 0.31 for October 23 and October 22. Those values provide recent context for this particular maturity pair. They do not establish that every part of the Treasury yield curve has the same shape. The spread alone does not identify the cause of a daily change. Claims about a term premium, fiscal borrowing, investor conviction or a future recession need additional evidence. This brief does not infer any of those outcomes from the new observation. The yield difference is not a consumer mortgage rate, a bond investor's realized return or a live overnight market quote. Keeping the date, units, subtraction order and sign together avoids turning a positive daily spread into an unsupported inversion narrative.

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