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Rates & Fed · October 27, 2026 · 2 min read

October 27 Treasury spread narrows to positive 29 basis points

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 27, 2026 • Updated October 27, 2026

FRED lists the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread at positive 0.29 percentage point, down three basis points from October 26. The dated daily observation remains positive, not inverted.

FRED's daily 10-year minus 2-year Treasury constant-maturity spread is positive 0.29 percentage point for October 27, 2026. The page reports an update at 4:04 p.m. Central Time. This is a dated daily observation, not a live overnight trading quote. The October 26 observation was positive 0.32 percentage point. The new reading is three basis points lower, but it remains positive: the 10-year yield is above the 2-year yield in this measure. It is not a negative 47-basis-point inversion. FRED calculates the series as the 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield minus the 2-year Treasury constant-maturity yield. It lists percent as the unit, with daily frequency and no seasonal adjustment. For this yield difference, 0.29 percentage point is 29 basis points. The preceding values shown are positive 0.31 percentage point for October 23 and October 22, and positive 0.32 percentage point for October 21. Comparing dates is different from comparing intraday quotes. The series does not describe every maturity pair on the Treasury curve. A spread observation does not establish a particular Federal Reserve decision, a guaranteed recession outcome or a reason for the day's change. Explanations involving investor expectations, borrowing supply or term premiums need separate evidence beyond this series. The measure is also not a retail mortgage quote, the price change of a bond or the return an investor will receive. Keeping the observation date, subtraction order, sign and units together prevents a positive yield difference from being mislabeled as an inversion.

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