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Energy · November 10, 2026 · 2 min read

EIA cuts winter gas-price forecast as U.S. crude stocks stay tight

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published November 10, 2026 • Updated November 10, 2026

The November outlook puts end-October commercial crude stocks at 410 million barrels and cuts its November-March Henry Hub forecast to $2.87. Spot-price forecasts do not guarantee lower household bills.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's November 10, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook describes tight U.S. crude inventories alongside a lower winter natural gas price forecast. Commercial crude stocks ended October at 410 million barrels, the lowest end-of-October level since 2014. That is a seasonal comparison, not a claim that inventories reached their lowest level in every month since 2014. EIA says crude stocks fell by 14.1 million barrels during October as imports declined and exports rose. It links the change in net imports to a wide gap between Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices, while high refinery inputs also helped reduce inventories. These are the agency's explanations of the inventory change, not an independent finding that one factor explains every market move. The outlook projects inventories below the five-year average through the middle of 2027 before higher net imports and production support rebuilding. EIA forecasts U.S. crude production of 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027. Production and inventory paths remain forecasts, dependent in part on shipping conditions, oil flows and refinery operations. For natural gas, EIA forecasts a Henry Hub spot price averaging $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16% below its previous forecast. It expects 3,840 billion cubic feet in storage at the end of November, 67 billion more than previously forecast, partly because mild weather reduces heating demand. The storage figure is a projection, not a completed end-November observation. The agency warns that the timing and severity of winter cold remain uncertain and that severe episodes could lift demand and temporarily push prices higher. Henry Hub is a wholesale benchmark: its forecast does not translate directly into an equal reduction in a household's gas bill, which also depends on local rates, delivery charges and actual usage. EIA finalized the forecast's inputs on November 5, so the outlook does not specifically account for later market events. The contrast is between currently low seasonal crude stocks and a softer forecast for winter domestic gas prices, not a guarantee that all energy costs will fall. Shipping disruptions, weather and subsequent data can change that picture.

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