Markets · August 11, 2026 · 2 min read

EIA’s August Outlook Forecasts $85 Brent Oil and $2.87 Henry Hub Gas in Q3

Published August 11, 2026 • Updated August 21, 2026

EIA’s August 11 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects a third-quarter average of about $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil and $2.87 per MMBtu for the Henry Hub natural-gas spot price.

CONFIRMED FACTS The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on August 11; the agency states that the forecast was completed August 6. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average about $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $69 per barrel in 2027. Its forecast overview attributes the near-term price level to reduced oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and lower global oil inventories in the coming months. For natural gas, EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average $2.87 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the third quarter, 50 cents per MMBtu below its July STEO forecast. EIA cites reduced LNG feedgas demand and robust natural-gas production in its discussion of that change. EIA’s overview table lists 2026 averages of $87 per barrel for Brent and $3.44 per MMBtu for Henry Hub, followed by $69 and $3.31, respectively, for 2027. These are annual forecast averages, whereas the $85 and $2.87 figures are third-quarter forecasts. ANALYSIS The release presents an outlook in which near-term oil and natural-gas price paths differ: EIA’s third-quarter Brent projection is supported by its oil-shipment and inventory assumptions, while its Henry Hub projection was revised lower from July. Comparing quarterly and annual figures requires care because they cover different time periods. UNKNOWNS AND LIMITS The STEO is a forecast, not an observation of future prices or a guarantee of retail fuel prices. Its projections depend on assumptions about Middle East production and shipping, inventories, LNG operations, production, and other conditions that can change. The release does not establish the future price paid by a particular household, business, or region, and later STEO editions may revise these estimates. UPDATE LOG Published August 11, 2026 after direct review of EIA’s August 11, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook and its text-only report. The live Data Brief inventory and the database source inventory were checked for duplicate slugs, canonical EIA URLs, and substantive overlap before publication.

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U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026 — Primary-source August 11, 2026 forecast overview; supports the release date, price forecasts, assumptions, and annual overview values.
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook text-only report, August 2026 — Primary-source text version reviewed for the release date, forecast-completion date, quarterly forecasts, and described forecast changes.

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