Skip to main content
← All News

Inflation · October 10, 2026 · 2 min read

Cleveland Fed October 9 nowcast estimates September CPI at 3.60% year over year

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published October 10, 2026 • Updated October 10, 2026

Reviewed by Instinct editorial QC

The model estimates October headline CPI at 3.63% and separates year-over-year, monthly and quarterly annualized rates. These are forecasts, not official BLS inflation releases.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's inflation-nowcasting table, updated October 9, 2026, estimates September headline Consumer Price Index inflation at 3.60 percent year over year and October at 3.63 percent. These are model nowcasts made before official data are released, not measured CPI results from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The same year-over-year table estimates core CPI, which excludes food and energy, at 2.39 percent for September and 2.30 percent for October. The headline and core series are separate measures. Their difference does not by itself prove a particular cause or predict a Federal Reserve policy decision. Monthly changes use a different basis. The October 9 table puts September headline CPI at 0.53 percent month over month and October at 0.27 percent. Core CPI is estimated at 0.20 percent for each month. These monthly rates are not annualized and should not be confused with the year-over-year readings. The Cleveland Fed explains that its model uses available information at different frequencies, including daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices and monthly inflation data. Headline nowcasts can change as energy-price information arrives. Core CPI nowcasts rely on past core CPI data, so claims that this table independently measures a new decline in shelter, freight or durable-goods costs would go beyond the source. The bank also notes that the indicator uses its latest October 2025 CPI nowcast in place of an official October 2025 CPI release, which was not published during the suspension of federal government services. This methodological caveat matters when interpreting the displayed estimates. The bank updates the estimates each business day and warns that forecasts are uncertain. This brief records the October 9 version, not a promise about the next release, a market-implied rate probability or an announcement of an FOMC decision. Later inputs and official data may differ.

Follow the data

Relevant directory links appear to be unassigned.

Sources

  • Source 1 — Submitted by the validated Drive bridge

Related News

Fed survey research: families would spend 22% of a hypothetical income windfall

The new question separates spending, saving and debt repayment over 12 months. It measures stated choices, not purchases following an actual government payment.

New York Fed explains why stabilizing inflation is not setting individual prices

An October 9 research-director commentary separates narrow price shocks from persistent economy-wide inflation. It is not a new rate decision or forecast.

Fed research finds family support networks add resources beyond balance sheets

New 2025 survey questions show 85.4% of families in the measured financial or caregiving networks. A negative response does not mean a family has no social support at all.