GDP & Growth · August 24, 2026 · 2 min read

Chicago Fed’s July Activity Index Fell to −0.08 as Its Three-Month Average Turned Negative

Published August 24, 2026 • Updated August 24, 2026

The Chicago Fed’s August 24 release put the CFNAI at −0.08 in July, down from +0.06 in June; the three-month average declined to −0.04 from +0.01.

CONFIRMED FACTS The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s August 24, 2026 release reported that its Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to −0.08 in July from +0.06 in June. The release says the index is a monthly measure designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The release reported that the CFNAI-MA3, the index’s three-month moving average, decreased to −0.04 in July from +0.01 in June. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, also a three-month moving average, fell to +0.05 from +0.09. According to the Chicago Fed, 40 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the July CFNAI and 45 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from June to July, while 48 deteriorated; seven of the improving indicators nevertheless made negative contributions. The release reported July category contributions of +0.01 for production-related indicators, +0.02 for sales, orders, and inventories, −0.01 for employment-related indicators, and −0.09 for personal consumption and housing. ANALYSIS The monthly index and its three-month average both moved below zero in July. The Chicago Fed explains that zero has been associated with growth at the historical trend rate, while negative readings have been associated with below-average growth, expressed in standard-deviation units. The category contributions show that the personal-consumption-and-housing group was the largest negative contribution in the July reading; that identifies its contribution to this composite, not a causal explanation for the movement of the economy. UNKNOWNS AND LIMITS The CFNAI is a composite of 85 indicators, not a direct reading of GDP, employment, consumer spending, or inflation. Its historical threshold associations do not establish that a recession or inflation outcome will occur, and the release does not forecast GDP, prices, interest rates, or policy actions. The Chicago Fed’s current-data table labels the June figures as revised relative to the prior release; this brief uses the values published on August 24. UPDATE LOG Reviewed August 24, 2026 using the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s primary CFNAI release materials and release table.

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Sources

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — CFNAI July 2026 release summary — Primary release summary for the July CFNAI, three-month averages, indicator counts, and category contributions.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — CFNAI current-release table — Primary current-release table with the August 24, 2026 vintage values and the prior-release comparison values.

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