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Housing · November 10, 2026 · 2 min read

Westpac consumer sentiment falls to 78.2 as mortgage holders report record pessimism

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published November 10, 2026 • Updated November 10, 2026

The November survey shows weak confidence but mixed family-finance and housing measures. Consumer expectations and Christmas spending plans are not actual spending or a central-bank decision.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 2.7% to 78.2 in November 2026 from 80.4 in October, according to the November 10 bulletin. Westpac describes this as the lowest reading since late 2022. The index measures surveyed attitudes, not actual household spending or a direct probability of recession. Mortgage holders reported a particularly sharp decline: sentiment in that subgroup fell 11.6% to 68.1, the lowest reading in a series going back to 1994. The bulletin discusses inflation and interest-rate concerns as important context. The survey does not isolate the effect of a single rate decision from all the other pressures on households. The detailed table shows that expectations for the economy over the next 12 months fell 10.2% to 70.3, while the five-year outlook fell 1.0% to 84.6. Family-finance assessments were mixed: the measure compared with a year earlier rose 3.0% to 68.8, but expectations for the coming year slipped 1.0% to 87.6. These results do not support a claim that every component fell sharply. The Mortgage Rate Expectations Index dipped 1.1% to 177.8 but remained high. Among respondents surveyed after the Reserve Bank decision, 72% expected mortgage rates to rise over the next year, compared with 80% in the prior month. This describes consumer expectations, not a commitment by the central bank or a forecast guaranteed to come true. Housing measures also moved in different directions. The House Price Expectations Index fell 13.4% to 99.6, while the time-to-buy-a-dwelling measure improved 1.3% to 89.6. Christmas gift-spending intentions were less bleak than overall sentiment: just over 38% planned to spend less, 46% about the same and 14% more. Among mortgage holders, 92% planned to spend the same or less, which is not the same as saying 92% planned a cut. The survey covered 1,200 Australian adults aged 18 or over during November 2–6, with randomly selected respondents and population weighting. Westpac says most of the listed indexes are seasonally adjusted, except the dwelling-buying, unemployment-expectations and house-price-expectations measures. Reported intentions and perceptions should be kept separate from later retail sales, actual house prices and policy outcomes.

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