Rates & Fed · August 31, 2026 · 1 min read

10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.76%, Highest Since January 2025

Published August 31, 2026

Yields broke through key resistance as U.S.-Iran tensions and rising Fed rate-hike bets pushed borrowing costs to their highest level in over a year and a half.

**The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.76%** Monday — its fourth straight session of gains and the highest level since January 2025 — after breaking through resistance near 4.75%. The next chart target is the January 2025 high of 4.809%; the 2-year sits at 4.36% and the 30-year at 5.26%. **Two forces are pushing yields higher:** escalating U.S.-Iran tensions are lifting inflation risk premia, and traders keep adding to Fed rate-hike bets. CME FedWatch now prices a 58% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from 55.7% over the weekend but still well short of the ~90% reading markets treat as a "done deal."

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