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Rates & Fed · August 28, 2026 · 1 min read

Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Sends Rate-Hike Odds and Yields Higher

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published August 28, 2026

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish inflation message at his first Jackson Hole keynote pushed September rate-hike odds up and short-term Treasury yields to a one-month high.

**Warsh calls inflation "too high," cites 3.4% CPI**: In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh said "inflation is running above our 2% target," pointing to CPI at 3.4% and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge at 3.7% for the year through July. He stopped short of committing to a September hike, saying he prefers "a quieter Fed" that is "more purposeful in its communications." **September hike odds jump to 46%, 2-year yield hits 4.29%**: Futures-implied odds of a September rate increase rose to 46% from 35% on Thursday, per CME data. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 6.6 basis points to a one-month high of 4.29%, the 30-year fell 3 basis points to 5.16%, and the dollar index gained 0.4% to 99.55. The S&P 500 held roughly flat, up 0.20% to 7,747, while gold fell 1.63% to $4,535.27/oz.

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