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Inflation · August 10, 2026 · 2 min read

New York Fed: One-Year Inflation Expectations Eased to 3.6% in July

By Econ Data Tools Editorial Team

Published August 10, 2026 • Updated August 21, 2026

The New York Fed’s July Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a small decline in median one-year-ahead inflation expectations, while the three- and five-year measures were unchanged.

CONFIRMED FACTS The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations on August 7. The survey was fielded from July 1 through July 31, 2026. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell 0.1 percentage point from June to 3.6% in July. Median expectations at the three-year and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. The release also reported that median expected year-ahead gas-price growth increased 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%. Median expected rent growth fell 2.4 percentage points to 5.9%, while the expected change in food prices was unchanged at 5.0%. The New York Fed describes the SCE as a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. ANALYSIS The July reading points to a modest easing in respondents’ short-horizon inflation expectations while their medium- and longer-horizon medians held steady. The separate movements in expected gas and rent costs illustrate why the overall inflation-expectations measure should not be read as a prediction for every household expense category. UNKNOWNS AND LIMITS This survey reports expectations, not realized future inflation or a forecast from the Federal Reserve. It does not establish why respondents changed their views, whether the July readings will persist, or the path of monetary policy, wages, or consumer spending. As a rotating-panel survey, its results are subject to the survey design and the distinction between reported beliefs and later outcomes. UPDATE LOG Published August 10, 2026 after direct review of the New York Fed’s August 7 press release and Survey of Consumer Expectations overview. No published Data Brief matched this release, its canonical release URL, or its subject matter in the live inventory checked August 10, 2026.

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